Weebro's Fantasy Blog

The Closer Grab Bag

2007-04-22T00:20:00.000-07:00

Matt Capps -

Salamon Torres averaged .25 runs a game through 2006 or about a run every 4 games (He had similar stats in 2005). All of his numbers point to a 2005 Jose Mesa type closer. This basically means, be ready for a nail bitting, roller coaster of a time. Obviously Matt Capps is the better choice, however, Pittsburgh as shown a loyalty to players with major league experience under their belt. That being said, don't expect a quick transition over to Matt Capps this year, either we're going to see Salamon go out in a blaze of runs or we wait till next year for ol Capps.

Octavio Dotel -

The question everyone keeps asking is will this guy regain his closer status once he returns to the Royals. The plain and simple answer to that question is 100% yes. They brought him in with a plan and there is no way they're going to move away from this unless absolutely necessary. Look for Dotel to be back on the mound closing in mid May.

Brad Lidge -

Wheeler may not be the remedy, but Brad Lidge has forever lost his closing job. Forget about him, he's a Mitch Williams mess and shouldn't even be had in the deepest of leagues. He holds no value, unless of course you're running a Triple A fantasy league and are hoping he comes down to pitch for Round Rock. Then he's a nice pick up!

Brett Myers -

First of all, I would like to state that I don't agree with Myers in the pen in the first place. But since the Phillies disagree, he's been pushed into the role. Brett Myers should eventually find his way back to the rotation. Assuming Gordon stays healthy Brett shouldn't see more than 2 or 3 opportunities to save a game. Unless you have no other option, he's really not worth the hassle.

Al Reyes -

Yes, Al Reyes is for real. If he stays healthy we could be sitting on a WW goldmine. But staying healthy has been a big issue. If Mr. Reyes can avoid the DL, he can more than pitch. He's got great stuff and should have no problem closing games.

Mike McDougal -

Mike's the man in Chicago, Bobby Jenks is on a short leash with a manager who isn't afraid to choke out his players. Mike McDougal will fill in the role, he was warming up in Friday's Cleavland game just in case. That should settle any argument as to who would take over the duty, *cough Aardsma *cough.

Mariano Rivera -

Despite his recent woes, he's the Yankee's closer, there is just nothing you can do about it. Farnsworth might be able to knock him out but that might hurt his reputation with the team.

Joe Borowski -

Joe's still the closer in Cleveland and should hold the job for the time being. Sometimes I wonder if I could put on a Borowski jersey and throw a few pitches in the 9^th inning. I'm confident nobody would notice, I know I can be good at giving up home runs and walks..............I've always been good at that.

Spot Starters 4/22

2007-04-21T10:38:00.000-07:00

Those of you looking for some spot starters for Sunday, there isn't much to offer. Here are your best bets:

Brett Tomko vs. Pit
Matt Belisle vs. Phi

Buy Low, Sell High

2007-04-20T11:38:00.000-07:00

SELL HIGH ---------------------------------BUY LOW

Ian Kinsler------------------------------------ Albert Pujols

Marcus Giles---------------------------------Alfonso Soriano

Torii Hunter------------------------------------Chase Utley

Barry Bonds----------------------------------Ryan Howard

Moises Alou-----------------------------------Lance Berkman

Edgar Renteria--------------------------------Mark Teixeira

Chris Duncan----------------------------------Manny Ramirez

Dmitri Young-------------------------------------Jason Bay

Shawn Green------------------------------------Andruw Jones

Sammy Sosa--------------------------------------Rafael Furcal

Rich Hill-----------------------------------------Chris Carpentar

Josh Beckett------------------------------------Carlos Zambrano

Tim Hudson--------------------------------------Brandon Webb

Ted Lilly--------------------------------------------Ben Sheets

Ramon Ortiz---------------------------------------Scott Kazmir

Tom Gorzelanny-----------------------------------Jered Weaver

Ian Snell--------------------------------------------Aaron Harang

Tim Wakefield---------------------------------------Chris Young

John Maine-----------------------------------------Mike Mussina

Mark Buehrle--------------------------------------Ervin Santana

Highlights: Sell High

Ian Kinsler -

Ian Kinsler is one of the hotest bats in the major leagues right now, so letting him go may be really hard to do. He's batting .318 with 7 homers and 14 RBI's, 12 runs and 2 stolen bases. But there is a multitude of reasons as to why it isn't humanly possible for him to keep up these kind of numbers. First and foremost he's batting in the 9 spot and can't seem to hit a lick when they move him higher up in the lineup. He's still young, which is good, but he lacks plate discipline as was evident in his .286 batting avg last year. He hit a total of 14 dingers all of last year and pulls along with him some injury risk. So a decline in both average and power is inevitable. See if you can't package him with an upside pitcher like John Maine for a more established second baseman like slumping Chase Utley.

Marcus Giles -

On top of Giles hot start he's got great name recognition for anyone who has been around fantasy baseball more than a year. He's approaching 30 years old and has been a major injury risk his entire career. His overall stats have been on a steady decline since his breakout season in 2003 with Atlanta falling as far as batting to the tune of .262 last season. Deal Marcus now while he's hot and try to grab someone who has a lesser chance of coming up gimp running down the line.

Barry Bonds -

Talk about having a job put on a golden platter. Barry Bonds is chasing the home run record which plasters his name across every news station in the united states. Every single home run he hits is completely blown out of proportion on ESPN and keeps everyone remembering his name. But mark my words, Barry is NOT a guy you want on your fantasy team when you can get much more in return. Barry is on a strict diet of playing limited innings in a season. You'll be lucky to see him play 130 games, and a good portion of those will only be for 4 to 6 innings. Although his state line will be nice when he's in the game, that will be offset by the times you're unable to pull him from your lineup when he's not playing. Let's face the facts, Barry's 42 years old and we all know he took steroids (whether it was on purpose or not is for another story). He's playing on borrowed time, he's one torn ligament away from being a distant memory. Deal him for a better than avg outfielder who will play everyday, at the very least you'll get similar stats, with less of the injury risk.

Josh Beckett -

Don't get me wrong here, Josh is a great pitcher. He's got the stuff to be a top 5 starter, there's no doubt about that. But Josh has a hard time putting it all together. At 27 he's right at his prime so there's still a possibility that he can really “find his own” but I think the cards are stacked against him at this point. Last year he won 16 games which is great but his ERA hit the 5 run mark and that's just no good. He's a power pitcher who pays little attention to counts or the batters that he's facing, he had issues with walks and has yet to surpass the 170 mark for K's which is unusual for a pitcher of his caliber. He plays for a great team so he's bound to win 15 to 17 games, on top of this he has great name recognition and should be able to hook a real gem if you sniff it out correctly.

Tim Hudson -

At 32 Tim has passed his prime, his glory days in Oakland are well behind him and I expect that to continue into this season. However he's done it, Tim has pitched to the tune of 2 and 0 with a .86 ERA....WOW. Awesome start for a guy who's seen his ERA jump over 2 runs since 2003. But he's done it against Florida, Washington, and a slumping Philadelphia squad. You can put money in the bank that teams such as the New York Mets are going to have none of that. Hudson owners are in for a huge disappointment once he starts facing teams who know how to hit. Get rid of Tim now while he's hot and thank me later.

Ted Lilly -

As a cubs fan this pains me to even say, get rid of Ted Lilly before he throws another game. There is absolutely no way a lifetime .500 pitcher with a career era of 4.55 through 9 seasons is going to continue his current pace, especially for the Chicago Cubs. It just isn't going to happen, every game he pitches I'm just waiting for the blow up that will put him back to his old “so-so” self. The law of averages is very much against this guy, trade him now, his value has never been higher in his life. Let someone else carry the fall.

Highlights: Buy Low

Albert Pujols -

Any smart owner will know that Albert is just a game away from returning to his normal monstrous self, but right now he's in a major slump. His timing is off and he's pressing at the plate. If, somehow, you can pry this guy out of another owner's hands, you would be a lucky man for doing so.

Alfonso Soriano -

It's likely that Soriano doesn't put up the kind of numbers he had last year so his slumping start may void any kind of decreased value an owner may put on him. But if you can find the right trade, grabbing Soriano now while he's down will help your team later in the game.

Ryan Howard -

What a slow start to Howard's season, he's got to be burning owners who grabbed him with their 1^st round pick. Add in the fact that he recently hurt his knee and you have yourself a prime example of a player with decreased value. Throw some trades at him and hope for the best. He's in for a huge season.

Chris Carpenter -

Carpenter's DL stint isn't serious and the Cardinals are looking for his return in the next couple of weeks. He had a horrible outing before he hit the DL so his state line is ugly. See if you can't find an owner who's ready to pull the plug early on this fantasy stud.

Carlos Zambrano -

Zambrano has his mind on his money and it's showed the first few games with the cubs. Don't worry though, Zambrano is a natural ace and will hit his stride by early May. See if you can't grab this guy up while he's pitching like the old Ted Lilly. You won't be disappointed.

Mike Mussina -

If you can handle an ERA over 4 Mike's your man. His first few outings were less than steller and he's now rotting away on the DL. He's old and that makes him a risk, but for the right price you would be snagging a 15 win pitcher with 170 K's.

Sport Starters 04/21

2007-04-20T10:16:00.000-07:00

Those owners looking for sport starts on Saturday are really low on options, however, these two will give them the best shot.

Eric Milton vs. Phil
Anthony Reyes vs ChC

Owens in Florida

2007-04-19T20:32:00.000-07:00

Struggling Florida Marlins reliever Jorge Julio was placed on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez, who said he prefers one closer, admitted he was "92 percent sure" who he would use but wouldn't name him. It is apparent Henry Owens is his man.

!!ATTENTION!! - If this guy is still available in your league pick him up right now!

With the Binghampton Mets Owens was outstanding as a closer. He compiled 51 K's while allowing only eight hits in 25 innings pitched before his promotion to the major leagues. He sports a very nice 97 mph fastball and has real major league potential. This guy is a must have in all formats and may just be the sleeper closer of the year. I guess, only time will tell.

Source: South Florida Sun-Sentinel

King Felix's Slider

2007-04-19T12:08:00.000-07:00

Felix Hernandez left Wednesday's game in the first inning with an undisclosed injury. Hernandez was struggling with his command, and the first three batters reached against him before he took himself out. Everyone who likes baseball should be hoping its not an arm problem, but considering that his legs seemed to be just fine as he walked off, it likely is. We should have some sort of update today or early tomorrow.

(See picture above)
Here is a view of Felix Hernandez just before release. Notice that his PAS elbow is just below the level of his shoulders. In this photo, it looks like Hernandez is going to throw a change-up. What bothers me about this photo is that his forearm is pronated slightly, which may require him to supinate his forearm through the release point and increase the load on his UCL. - http://www.chrisoleary.com

His repertoire of pitches also includes a hard curve, a changeup, and a slider, all of which he can throw pretty well (he avoided the slider early in his career because the team was concerned it might injure his arm). - www.wikipedia.org

A full article about Seattle's reluctance to allow Felix to throw his slider can be read here.

As upsetting as this situation is I'll end this by reminding you all that the Seattle Mariners opened up the door this offseason for Felix to began throwing his slider once again.

"They stayed true to their vow of not using you in more than 200 innings last season, and until recently they prohibited you from throwing a slider.

The slider was the missing link in your repertoire. On opening day, the Safeco Field scoreboard showed you reaching the high-90-mph range on your fastball and the low 80s on the curve. The slider registered about 90." - www.thenewstribune.com

I'm stilling hoping for the best...

UPDATE!! - SEATTLE (AP) - Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez will likely miss two to three starts with a muscle strain inside his right elbow and forearm.

Spot Starters 04/20

2007-04-19T00:18:00.000-07:00

Those owners finding themselves in a pitching bind should take into consideration these two pitchers for spot starts on Friday.

Braden Looper vs. ChC
Randy Wolf Vs. Pit

Myers to the pen?

2007-04-18T16:09:00.000-07:00

Manager Charlie Manuel said Wednesday the Phillies will move Brett Myers into the bullpen, while inserting Jon Lieber into the starting rotation. Manuel said he was comfortable using Myers in either the seventh or eighth innings and might even use the former starter to close on days when Philly's regular closer, Tom Gordon, is not available for use. When asked if this was out of desperation, Manuel replied, "No, I think this is a way of us trying to fix our pitching staff, having the best pitching staff we can have." Myers has struggled so far this season, going 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA. He has failed to even make it out of the fifth inning in each of his last two starts. Lieber hasn't fared any better; after two appearances out of the bullpen, he has a lofty 11.57 ERA. Last season, he started 27 games for the Phillies, going 9-11 with a 4.93 ERA. At what point is it fair for us to ask the question "why?" Does Charlie even have a clue at this point? Let's move through his thought process for a moment. His team is absoulty horrible right now and nobody is really doing anything to win games for them, except for maybe Jimmy Rollins. So he decides it's important to make a pitching move to try and spark something......I guess. So, what is our best option? Oh, I know, lets move Brett, the one staple we have had in the past two seasons, out of the starting rotation and move in 500 year old Jon Leiber to take his place. This is the most logical idea I can think of right now. Is that kind of how it went? Well, right now, Charlie.......you have about 50,000 angry fantasy baseball owners and maybe a million fans who want you out of their town for good. Seriously............you suck at your job.

Spot Starters 04/19

2007-04-18T13:21:00.000-07:00

Looking for a spot starter? Tomorrow there are two WW candidates who have a great chance of putting up decent fantasy numbers:

Jamie Moyer vs. Wash
Orlando Hernandez vs. Fla

Keep these two in mind if you find yourself in a pitching bind.

When Clemens?

2007-04-18T11:00:00.000-07:00

Roger Clemens continues to work out daily to keep his body in shape for his inevitable return. As of March 29^th both his arm and leg strength were at about 90% according to his personal trainers. They speculated that Clemens would be 100% MLB ready by mid April (which is right about now). As it stands currently Clemens is sitting at 348 wins and 4,604 Ks, he's fighting off Greg Maddux who is sitting at 334 wins and Randy Johnson who has 4,544 Ks. You can bet your very last dollar that these two are playing a very big role in Clemen's decision to return.

Koby Clemens continues to do well in the minors and has real potential to make the bigs a few years down the road. He packs some power and has been praised for his plate discipline. Deep down Roger would love to spend one season with his son in Houston's organization, but unfortunately, Koby's entrance is at least another two years. I personally think that Clemens is trying to hold out for that one magical season and finally retire after it happens.

So when can we expect an announcement? Based upon information given by Clemens himself, his personal trainers, and close friends we're getting close. We may be hearing ESPN's announcers falling out of their chairs as soon as April 28^th but no later than May 12^th. However, the announcement will not nessesarly mean a quick return afterwards. He may spend another month fielding his offers from the regular attendees (Boston, New York, & Houston).

So now you're asking, which team has the best shot? Well, I can tell you which one has the least amount, and that's the Boston Red Sox. Boston isn't hurting in the pitching area with the signing of Dice K and the great pitching from Beckett and Schilling. They're likely to throw some money his way but are less likely to go all out in a bidding war. So this leaves the real two contenders, the New York Yankees, and the Houston Astros. Andy Pettitte is probably already been on the phone with Roger and most likely already knows where Clemens stands. His first choice will most definitely be the Houston Astros, but in all likelihood Clemens will get a better offer from the DL riddled New York Yankees. The real choice comes down to Koby, If Clemens believes that Koby may see some action with the Houston Astros sometime this season, even for a short stint. Clemens will take the offer from Houston and join their club in early June. If, however, Clemens sees that Koby is still a few years off (which scouts are saying he is) he'll join up with Pettitte in hopes for one last World Series ride.

Chance that Koby Clemens gets the call to play in the bigs = 10%

Chance that Roger Clemens returns = 96%

Playing for the Red Sox = 10%

Playing for the Astros = 40%

Playing for the Yankees = 50%

Here's to Clemens, the man with best gig in all of baseball.

Poor Pujols owners!

2007-04-17T10:12:00.000-07:00

We're twelve games into the season and Albert Pujols is hitting (or lack there of) to the tune of: .170 AVG/3 Hrs/ 7 RBIs/ 7 Runs/ 0 SB. Of course, this wont last, by the end of the season he'll have a stat line worthy of MVP votes (we think).

Why is Albert Pujols hitting so poorly, is it something Pujols owners should be worried about............well.............maybe slightly. First of all, fantasy owners and Cardinal fans alike should be worried about the amount of walks Pujols is drawing. Outside of the obvious intentional walks (4) Pujols has only drawn 1 traditional walk. The Cardinal's hitting coach told St. Louis Today that Pujols appears "jumpy". His timing is off and his hands and body are way out in front of the ball. What's worrisome is that Pujols was told this a week ago but can't seem to shake it. The reason? Albert Pujols may be playing at less than 100%, which is NOT good news.

Sometime during spring training or early workouts Pujols reaggravated his right hamstring. He decided not to take it easy and continued to play on it sore. This is the same sore hamstring that landed him on the DL last season! This might explain the reason why Pujol's is "off". Hal McRae himself (Cardinals hitting coach) admitted that Albert's swing was not quite right. It's very possible that Pujol's has adjusted his swing slightly to keep some pressure off of his hurt leg during his swings. This is NOT good news, as continued stress on an injured area will only make things worse. On top of everything, it's been very cold this young season and this does nothing to help an injured muscle out.

As if all the above wasn't enough an even more sinister problem started to bloom last season. Major League scouts have noted that Albert Pujols has expanded his strike zone a great deal from 2005 and early 2006. With the decline of Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, pitchers have been keeping balls off of the plate when facing Albert. He's expanded his zone to get more swings, unfortunately those baseballs are not easy to hit.

Hopefully these things work themselves out, for Pujol's owners they're praying sooner rather then later.

Buy Low, Sell High

2007-04-16T20:32:00.000-07:00

Buy Low (H): Top 10

Albert Pujols
Alfonso Soriano
Carl Crawford
Chase Utley
Ryan Howard
David Ortiz
Lance Berkman
Mark Teixeira
Travis Hafner
Manny Ramirez

Buy Low (SP): Top 10

Chris Carpenter
Carlos Zambrano
Brandon Webb
Ben Sheets
Scott Kazmir
Jered Weaver
Brett Myers
Aaron Harang
Chris Young
Randy Johnson

Sell High (O): Top 10

Ian Kinsler
Adam Dunn
Orlando Hudson
Russell Martin
Eric Byrnes
Aaron Hill
Akinori Iwamura
Chris Duncan
Luis Gonzalez
Torrii Hunter

Sell High (P): Top 10

Tim Hudson
Ted Lilly
Ramon Ortiz
Kip Wells
Nate Robertson
Chuck James
Javier Vazquez
Kyle Lohse
Micah Owings
Tim Wakefield

The fall of Prior

2007-04-16T18:21:00.001-07:00

In 1998 the New York Yankees drafted Mark Prior but would later lose him due to contract differences. That year marked the beginning of what could go down as the most bizarre baseball “fall from grace” story in recent memory.

After the contract fell through, Mark headed to college to play baseball for Vanderbilt University. He transferred to USC the following year and went on to be the best collegiate pitcher in years, winning the Golden Spikes Award. The stage was set for Mark to set professional baseball on fire.

Mark Prior re-entered the draft in 2001 and was regarded the top prospect by most everyone who had any affiliation. Early projections had the Minnesota Twins grabbing up Prior as they had the first overall pick in the draft. Things changed quickly after the Twins office began to hear strange reports of Mark Prior openly rebuking Minnesota's organization. In the end Minnesota passed on the obvious choice and instead drafted Joe Mauer. The Chicago Cubs were thrilled with their luck and didn't hesitate to take Mark with the second overall pick in the draft.

After a short stay in the minor leagues, tearing up most every poor young sap he faced, Mark Prior made his major league debut on May 22^nd 2002 finishing the season with a respectable 6 and 6 season. The next year Prior picked up right where he left off, he finished the season 18 – 6, gained the third most Cy Young votes, and was voted into his first all star game. Unfortunately a collision with Atlanta Brave's Marcus Giles left him on the DL and watching the game from home. After Prior's stint on the disabled list came to an end, he compiled a 10-1 record, leading the Cubs into the playoffs, where they beat the Braves in the first round before losing to the eventual World Series Champion Floria Marlins in the NLCS despite a tightly contested seven game battle. Prior was on the mound for the infamous Steve Bartman incident. After the supposed fan interference, Prior lost all composure and turned a sure NL championship for the Cubs into another disappointment for Chicago fans.

The following year Prior was forced to miss the first two months of the season due to an achilles injury. There were published reports stating that Prior would need reconstructive Tommy John's Surgery on his elbow, but both Prior and the Cubs flatly denied this, saying that his achilles tendon injury is the only reason he missed time in 2004. After coming off the disabled list Prior did not pitch up to expectations, leading to more speculation about the health of his arm. However, towards the end of the 2004 season, Prior seemed to return to form.

Prior's 2005 season was again marred with numerous missed games due to injuries. After starting the season on the DL again, he returned and pitched well in the early part of the season. However, on May 27^th Prior was hit on his right pitching elbow by a 117-mph comeback line drive off the bat of Brad Hawpe giving him a compression fracture. This sent him to another stint on the DL. Prior finished 11-7 in 27 starts. And so the DL stints continued right up to today where he's now looking at another few weeks on the DL, only this time with Triple A.

So what really happened to Mark Prior? Dusty Baker denies over pitching Mark too early in his career but the innings he put in at his age states otherwise. Was this the reason for his demise? Or can we push the blame somewhere else? Does Mark have some personal issues he's trying to work out in his head? The Chicago Tribune has hinted at the possibility that Mark is depressed at where his career is, and the way he presents himself shows an unhappy man. Is Mark going the way of Mitch Williams and letting the stress get to him? Then we have the more sinister idea that Mark Prior was an avid user of steroids. As much as I hate to kick a player while he's down, it's important that we all take note of the very real muscle loss we're seeing in Mark's lower body. Pictures can be seen here: http://grg51.typepad.com/steroid_nation/2007/04/cubs_fans_talki.html. His once overpowering 97 mph fastball now struggles to hit 89 mph on the gun, settling in around 87. Where did the speed go?

I think it's important to make note of how Mark treated the idea of playing for Minnesota way back before he was drafted. Why did Prior feel he had any say in where he would go? Ultimitly he ended up playing in Des Monies Iowa.........which I'm sure he never wanted. Why are there reports from people from inside the Cubs organizations making steroid accusations, is it something we should be listening to? Does anyone remember the Mark Prior who blew up on Barry Bonds after hitting him when he was up to bat..............was it duel rage? We can only guess................but in the end it all comes down to numbers. The numbers never lie, a 7 plus ERA in both Spring and Triple A doesn't lie, a fast ball that's dropped off the side of the earth doesn't lie, the losses don't lie. Mark Prior's career, unfortunately, may have ended before it even really began. Maybe one day we'll know the real reason.

Studs and Duds

2007-04-16T14:44:00.000-07:00

Studs and Duds

By Saman Sepassi, Fantasy Baseball Cafe Regular

Every year there are players that rise to their potential and become studs, while other players fall short of expectations and become duds. Which of those young studs will put it all together this season and post those big numbers? Which of those older players have washed up and are finally in decline? Correcty identifying these players can make or break your season. Below, I’ll give you three players that you should target, and three you should avoid.

Studs

Felix Hernandez, Starting Pitcher, Seattle Mariners

Hernandez has quickly become Seattle’s ace at the young age of 21. Hernandez throws three pitches: fastball, curveball, and change-up. All three of these pitches are strikeout pitches, and his fastball is often clocked up to 100 MPH. Felix also has a slider that is quite effective, although he uses it sparingly to minimize the potential for injury. Even though Hernandez had an off-year in 2006, he still sported a hefty 8.29 K/9, and is still considered to have a very bright MLB future. One of the indications of future greatness is his incredible GB% (ground ball percentage) of 57.7%, and LD% (line drive percentage) of only 17.1%. I expect a dramatic decrease in his ERA this year due to his ground ball percentage being so high, and his line drive percentage being so low.

Alex Rios, Right Fielder, Toronto Blue Jays

Rios, the first-round selection for the Blue Jays in 1999, had been a top prospect in the Toronto farm system for several years. In fact, in ‘03 he won the Double-A Eastern League’s Most Valuable Player award after hitting .352 with 11 HRs and 82 RBIs. 2006 was a breakout year for Rios in the major leagues, as he posted an average of .302 with 17 HRs and 82 RBIs in only 450 ABs. Unfortunately, a serious staph infection prevented Rios from playing during part of the 2006 season. If he avoids injury this year, Rios should continue to develop and could be a solid number-two outfielder for your fantasy team.

C.C. Sabathia, Starting Pitcher, Cleveland Indians

Sabathia, now 26 years of age, was drafted by the Indians in 1998 with big expectations. So far, he hasn’t disappointed. Sabathia throws a fastball, a curveball, a slider, and a change-up. His fastball consistently hits 94-95 MPH, although he has been known to hit 99 from time to time. Sabathia’s ERA and WHIP have consistently decreased each year since ‘04, while simultaneously improving his K/9 to 8.04. Although he had an ERA of 3.22 last year with a WHIP of 1.17, Sabathia won only 12 games due to a lack of run support, coupled with the Cleveland bullpen blowing six of his leads. If the Indians could provide some more run support this season, Sabathia could potentially even see some Cy Young votes. Sabathia is a great player to target because he is consistently underrated.

Duds

Randy Johnson, Starting Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks

Johnson was traded back to Arizona last year, hoping his disappointing seasons with the Yankees would soon be forgotten. Hate to say it, but Randy is just not the same pitcher he was in ‘04. Since then, his ERA has grown to 5.00, and his WHIP has swollen .35 points to 1.24. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that he’s dropped a few MPH from his fastball and has lost a lot of the break on his slider. If you’re looking for a pitcher to come in and torpedo your pitching stats in 2007, look no further than Randy Johnson.

Todd Helton, First Basemen, Colorado Rockies

As Helton’s age has been increased, he’s still consistently hit for a great average (over .300 in the majors), although the same cannot be said about his HR and RBI totals. Over the last few years, his power has declined significantly from the Helton of old. He’s evolved from a HR-hitter to a gap-hitter, which means that his fantasy value goes down a good deal. He will still put up decent numbers, but won’t be close to where he used to be in his prime. Considering how deep first base is this season, Helton is another player you should avoid.

Melvin Mora, Third Basemen, Baltimore Orioles

Melvin, a veteran at age 35, is another player on the decline. As his age increases, his offensive numbers and his batting average decrease. The slow decline in productivity has left many owners wondering if Mora is worthy of a spot in their starting lineup. I would say no. Mora clubbed 11 fewer homers in 2006 than 2005, a trend I expect will continue. Third base is deep this season and you should be able to acquire a better weapon than Mora for your fantasy team.

Milton Bradley

2007-04-12T12:14:00.000-07:00

Milton Bradley finally grew up in 2006. At 29 years old, Bradley’s Albert Belle-like outbursts appear to be a thing of the past. Under the mentorship of Frank Thomas last year, Bradley showed that he could indeed become the player everyone knew he could be.

He hit a healthy .300/.386/.482 with 11 HR, 44 RBIs, and 8 SB after the All-Star break (even with an August where he batted .223/.330/.394). He carried that impressive trend through the postseason and even though he had a weak division series, he was the main weapon in the ALCS. In the league championship, Bradley batted a blistering .500/.500/.944 and was the chief contributor for the A’s during the series against Detroit.

There are a numerous reasons why fantasy owners to pay more attention to Bradley besides his strong second half and postseason performance. One reason to focus more on him would be because Bradley is a pending free agent. Many players perform their best when a payday is possible. The switch hitting Bradley is slated to bat third (prime fantasy slot) in Oakland’s lineup in front of newly acquired Piazza and a healthy Eric Chavez. Mike Kotsay and his bad back will vacate the #2 spot and possibly allow Oakland to insert a better table setter in front of Bradley, which should allow him to see better pitches and thus more RBI opportunities. Accordingly, Bradley will move to centerfield, a position he very much enjoys playing. Also, Bradley has had a fantastic Spring Training. Bradley is currently being drafted as the 55th outfielder on average. A player such as Coco Crisp is routinely being taken 20 spots higher in most drafts. Bradley is a player that will help in every offensive category and could be a steal. While he likely will not catapult your fantasy team into immediate contention by his lonesome, Bradley has 25/25 talent and is capable of hitting over .300 with close to 100 RBIs. Predicting a career year in 2007 for this

Angel Guzman

2007-04-11T12:26:00.000-07:00

Angel Guzman was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball just a few years ago, but injuries have taken their toll. During the 2003 and 2005 seasons, he suffered a multitude of injuries to his right arm, including a torn labrum, strained forearm, and fractured elbow. But in 2006, Angel Guzman finally made his major league debut at age 25. It was his first full season in four years, and to the Cubs delight, Guzman apparently had not lost any velocity on his pitches.

At 6’3” and 200 lbs, Guzman has a large arsenal of major league quality pitches consisting of a 2-seam and 4-seam fastball (that peaks at 97mph with movement), a devastating slider, sinker, change-up, and curve. He has the ability to make batters look baffled in the box, but his lack of control limited last year’s success. Going back and forth between starting and relieving, Guzman’s location and control was suspect. His wildness and inconsistency (not unlike a certain Cubs ace) garnered mixed results, but was expected in his first full year back. There were moments though, when the Angel Guzman that was once so coveted, shined quite brightly. Despite his troubles in 2006, he still managed 60 strikeouts in 56 innings. Most scouts agree that Guzman still has #1 stuff, but staying consistent and healthy will be essential for him to reach his full potential.

This past off-season, the Cubs went on a shopping spree and netted themselves Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis to fill out an already talented, though erratic, rotation consisting of Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, and Rich Hill. Aside from Zambrano, the entire Cubs rotation has question marks. Prior has a world of talent but cannot stay healthy. Lilly will benefit from the move to NL but he is no stranger to the DL. It has been only months since the Cardinals decided to leave Marquis off the World Series roster. Hill was Jekyll and Hyde last year with a 9.31 ERA in the first half and a 2.92 ERA in the second. Guzman will likely start the year in Triple-A or in relief, but when rotation unrest occurs, a healthy Guzman should be first in line to take over a rotation spot for the northsiders and he might not let it go. There have been many talented pitchers that have blossomed late because of injury or control issues and Guzman has all of the qualities to be one of them. Guzman is certainly a deep sleeper, but with his potential, he could also be the diamond in the rough that might put fantasy managers over the top, not unlike Francisco Liriano in 2006. Guzman could very well prove to be a sleeping ace.

Available Players!

2007-04-10T15:00:00.000-07:00

Ian Kinsler -

Kinsler quickly made Ranger's fans forget about dealing Alfonso Soriano to the Nationals. Unfortunately, he dislocated his thumb early last year and was out of action until May. Once back, he put together a decent season with a state line of: .286-14-55-65-11 and finished 7th for the ROY award. Ian's speed and power mix should have him back on a team in our league very soon. I really should pick him up personally, considering I have Jeff Kent, 40 year old stick man, holding my 2B spot down. But, as usual, I'll take the chance.

Mark Teahen -

I must admit that I'm not completely sold on Teahen, that's why it didn't surprise me when he was demoted after batting .195 the first few months of last year's season. However, the buzz around him has a lot of people keeping a Hawk's eye on this young gun. Even though the 25 year old Teahen has already had surgery on his right rotator cuff, Teahen continues to get a lot of fantasy talk, mostly because of his 3B availability. Considering the huge drop off at this position once you pass Arod, Cabrera, & Wright, I guess the talk might be warrantied. Gordan will start at 3b, and barring any injuries will keep Teahen in the outfield, where in my opinion, he'll disappear into fantasy baseball obscurity. He still holds some value this year to those looking for a 3B to stop the bleeding of some slumping schmo.

Edgar Renteria -

I've always seen Edgar as "one of those guys". He's the guy some manager decides to hold off for until the 24th round(right before the catcher) to fill in the SS position. He's the guy everyone knows what they'll get. 13 home runs (give or take) and a decent .285 AVG. At 31, he's passed his prime, if he ever had one, and continues to play average baseball year in and year out. I'm actually surprised he isn't currently on a team, considering the position, but it's probably only a matter of time. Here's to you Edgar.........for just being a fantasy no face. Keep up the consistently average work.

Zach Duke -

Imagine, for a moment, that the pirates actually had a decent baseball team. This guy would probably be owned in 95% of all leagues. He's young, he's got better than average stuff, and his last name is "Duke". I compare this guy to AJ Burnett, the only difference between the two is marketing. One is making millions the other is working a second job.

TRUM: Numbers

2007-04-10T14:48:00.000-07:00

You've got to be much more disappointed in John Maine, who got rocked Monday night, than in Sammy Sosa, who went 0-for-5. Again. Maine, we had expectations for. Sosa? Not so much.

I'm actually not that worried about Maine, just one of those days. What troubles you, if you are a Sosa owner, is Nelson Cruz, who went 3-for-3 with a run. Sosa was the DH and Cruz was in right field, but there will be a lot of nights when only one of them makes the lineup and if you were the manager of the Rangers, who would you pick?

Exactly.

Corey Patterson continues to bat low in the order and struggle -- he was 1-for-4 with four left on base Monday night -- but at least he's stealing ... base No. 2. Never liked him but if you got him, it could be worse. Patience. Daniel Cabrera continues to get my hopes up only to one day crush them, I am sure. I said in the preseason this was the year that he would breakout but, then again, I also said that last year. I like Cabrera too much. Last year he broke my heart like I was a stupid Tim on "The Apprentice." But so far so good. Another strong start for D-Cab -- I call him D-Cab -- 7 2/3 innings, 7 hits and a 5/0 K/BB. Of concern are the 122 pitches he threw. That's a lot for a pitcher, period, but for less than eight innings of work? That's something to monitor. But that's the only downside I can see to his start and he's available in most mixed leagues. Except, you know, the ones I am in.

Speaking of hate, three pitchers I have never liked were on the mound Monday. Carl Pavano, Sidney Ponson and A.J. Burnett. If you started Ponson, you deserve it. He is big and fat. Pavano's was the gutsiest start and, well, he looked good. He goes seven strong, only six hits and two earned runs. Of concern: only two strikeouts. I never like guys with low K-rates, so I'm not ready to declare him back or anything, but better than his last start.

The best start of the night (of the three guys I don't like) was Burnett's, who went 6 2/3 innings, giving up only three hits, one run and posting a 5/3 K/BB rate. Not as high as I would like (I prefer 3-to-1 to feel truly comfortable), but he did have a 12/3 ground ball to fly ball ratio, so he was keeping the ball down, which is good.

Both Burnett and Pavano will win a decent amount of games this year, because they are on good teams. Sometimes I like to write obvious stuff out of the blue. The sun is hot. The sky is blue. Lyle Overbay had 3 RBIs on Monday. That was good.

Alex Gordon, come on down. You left six men on base last night. Congrats to all the guys who took you ahead of Mark Teahen. If Eric Karabell and I each got a nickel for every time we marveled at that, on air or in print, well, we'd be sitting on an island, sipping margaritas instead of writing fantasy, I tell you that. Yes, together. What? Islands are expensive. We'd definitely have to go halfsies.

You know who is an underrated little middle-infield type, especially for deep mixed leagues or AL-only? Aaron Hill, who went 3-for-3 last night with two runs scored and two RBIs. He's hitting .348 on the young season and is just one of those guys that doesn't do a whole lot of anything, but he never hurts you and is just a solid little player. Again, only as an "MI" for deep mixed or AL-only.

Akinori Iwamura of Tampa Bay, however, needs to be gobbled up in all the leagues he's available in. There's definite corner infield potential, with two RBIs and a stolen base in Monday's game. Yes, he is this good.

Looking for a sell-high candidate? Geoff Jenkins, he of three home runs and the .350 batting average, is one of the streakiest players in the bigs. Over the past three years, he has hit .268 in April. Then .254 in May. And .226 in June. Ride him for a little while longer, but his value is at an all-time high. And then, get him back after the All-Star break, after which he hits almost 50 points higher.

So, you already know to go grab Dan Wheeler, the new closer in Houston, in all formats. Or, you should. Because he is. Lidge is out -- never pay for saves! -- and Wheeler is in, nailing down No. 1 last night. But let me, if I may, take you back.

Back to yesterday's TRUM (4/9), where I wrote this:

"With Jorge Julio almost blowing another save (and pitching poorly, to boot), look to Kevin Gregg and Henry Owens before Lee Gardner, who got the two-out save. My guess is Gregg gets the first shot while Taylor Tankersley is still on the DL, but Owens is all sorts of yummy as a pitcher. He had 74 strikeouts and 10 walks in only 40 innings in Double-A last year. Like I said ... yummy."

Back to present day where I was wrong about Gregg getting the first shot, but was right about Owens, who got the save last night. Now, it wasn't smooth sailing if you watched the game, it was a bit of an adventure, but he got the job done and he throws haaaard. Definitely worth the flyer. Julio hasn't lost the job yet -- he was given the night off because he worked Saturday and Sunday -- but now we know who's first in line when he blows the gig.

Meanwhile, I am concerned about Anibal Sanchez's start. It may look good from a distance, but look closer. He goes six innings and gives up three runs. Okay, fine. A quality start. But he gives up eight hits and three walks. That's a lot of baserunners for six innings. He also strikes out just one and needs 97 pitches to get through six innings. Lotta red flags there. Just saying.

Speaking of just saying ... I should make that a section. The "just saying" section. In fact, I will. That's the rule of the TRUM, which I forgot to remind you again -- and I'll continue to remind you until I get my header which explains it -- stands for Thoughts, Ramblings, Useless information and Musings, that it's written in one take and I just go where it leads me.

Just saying...

That Kazuo Matsui now has three steals on the season, and is hitting .333. He hit more than .300 over the second half of the year and was a sleeper I liked and was mocked for much of the preseason. He's also available in almost every league, save for NL-only...

That my beloved Ian Snell had another great start, giving up only one ER in seven innings ... I might marry Ian Snell, I love him so much...

That Shane Victorino stole a base last night. And is another source of cheap speed...

That Braden Looper plays for a very good team, with a solid bullpen and needed only 94 pitches to go seven strong innings while giving up no earned runs...

That even though I drafted him in one league (got stuck, is more like it) and it was his second strong start, I am still feeling uneasy about Ted Lilly. Maybe because I have owned him before. I don't know. But the numbers back Lilly up. Six innings, three runs, a 5/1 K/BB. Very solid. I just ... I don't know, you know? One of those guys.

Ted Lilly

2007-04-10T14:32:00.000-07:00

What comes to mind when you think of Ted Lilly? Is it the bloody nose of one John Gibbons after the manager of the Toronto Blue Jays took the lefty out of the fifth inning of a game in 2006? Or is it the pitcher who consistently baffled the Red Sox and was the lone Blue Jay to make the All-Star Game in 2004?

As a free agent this past off-season, Mr. Lilly signed a contract to pitch for the next four years in blue for the Chicago Cubs. The forty million dollars he commanded spoke to the experience he had gained as a pitcher in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, as he faced the two highest payrolls in the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees extensively. Additionally, with the advent of inter-league play, Mr. Lilly has pitched over sixty innings facing National League rosters and has come out smelling like a rose, posting a very respectable 2.98 earned run average. The likelihood of Mr. Lilly posting an earned run average of less than 3.00 over the course of a full season is highly unlikely; however, there is a blueprint that has had a somewhat successful transfer in 2005. Bronson Arroyo, in his first full season as a Cincinnati Red, posted a 3.29 ERA while watching his strikeout rate jump eighty-four percent.

To further strengthen the Chicago Cubs ability to win, they also added the most dynamic free agent on the market in Alfonso Soriano, they re-signed Aramis Ramirez, and if you add a healthy Derrek Lee, the offense will be much improved over last season. If Mr. Lilly is available in round 15 or higher of your fantasy draft, he is a solid option that has great potential upside and very little buzz.

Erubiel Durazo

2007-04-10T11:35:00.000-07:00

Do you remember Erubiel Durazo? The chubby first baseman/designated hitter who used to play for the Diamondbacks and the Athletics? What do you remember about him? His hilariously bad defense or his knack for getting on base? After spending 2006 with three different organizations, he’s back with the A’s, the team he’s had the most opportunity and success with during his career.

This time around with the A’s, his role is a bit different. Instead of competing for the starting designated hitter job, he is set to compete with Dan Johnson for the starting job at first base. Dan Johnson was one of the most disappointing youngsters of 2006. After hitting .275/.355/.451 with 15 HRs in limited action in 2005, he had a disastrous .237/.326/.373 line and various health problems before the All-Star Break, which caused him to be sent down to the minors. He started slow when he got there, but went on a tear as time went on. At the time Oakland called him back up, he was batting a healthy .314/.426/.523 in hitter friendly PCL. But as if a magical switch has been turned off as soon as he was called up, he continued to struggle in the majors, putting up a .222/.309/.422 line after the All-Star Break. His problems could be medical, it could be something about his approach at the plate, or simply his inability to hit major league pitching consistently. 2006 is a year to forget for Dan Johnson, and there’s no telling if he can do better in 2007.

That’s where Durazo comes in. Despite not getting one MLB at bat in all of 2006, he hit for a OPS north of .800 in all three of his Triple-A stops. He may not own an amazing glove (or even a decent one), but he certainly proves time and time again that he can hit. With Oakland’s mediocre and injury prone bats (9th out of 14 AL teams last year in run scored), they need all the help they can get offensively, even if that compromises their infield defense a bit.

There’s no guarantee that Durazo can hit MLB pitching right now, but keep in mind that he’s only 33. There’s a chance he could still be in his prime, not to mention that he owns a career .868 OPS, which would have been the second best OPS on the 2006 A’s behind Frank Thomas and right ahead of Nick Swisher. Not every projection system has run Durazo’s numbers this year, but the two that did (Marcel and Zips), both put him at respectable numbers (see table at bottom) with limited playing time. Of course, there’s no guarantee that he’ll even get one MLB plate appearance this year, but when the competition was as bad as Dan Johnson was last year, he has a reasonable chance to get a big chunk of playing time. Even if the first base job doesn’t work out for him, there’s no telling how current designated hitter starter Mike Piazza will do in his first time around the American League, and Durazo could pick his old designated hitter job from two years ago relatively easily.

Is Durazo a long shot? Yes, but don’t underestimate his ability. Guys with potential to hit 20+ home runs, while scoring lots of runs and knocking in a bunch of runs, don’t grow on trees. Make Durazo your final draft pick and keep an eye on him, because he could open some eyes this year.

Source	At Bats	Hits	Home Runs	Runs	RBI	Walks	Strikeouts	Average
Marcel	194	56	7	27	29	19	37	.289
ZiPS	341	95	10	37	46	43	69	.279

(Projection Source: FanGraphs)

Draft results

2007-04-09T13:17:00.001-07:00

Round 1
1.	José Reyes	Dream Team
2.	Johan Santana	The Brotherhood
3.	Carl Crawford	BlueFalcon
4.	Álex Rodríguez	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Alfonso Soriano	Cuban Elite
6.	Albert Pujols	Feedom Fighters
7.	Ryan Howard	KasTraTors
8.	Carlos Beltrán	Dodgers of t...
9.	Chase Utley	Amazins
10.	David Ortiz	Cubkillers

Round 2
1.	Miguel Cabrera	Cubkillers
2.	David Wright	Amazins
3.	Vladimir Guerrero	Dodgers of t...
4.	Manny Ramírez	KasTraTors
5.	Grady Sizemore	Feedom Fighters
6.	Ichiro Suzuki	Cuban Elite
7.	Lance Berkman	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Jason Bay	BlueFalcon
9.	Justin Morneau	The Brotherhood
10.	Carlos Lee	Dream Team

Round 3
1.	Matt Holliday	Dream Team
2.	Jimmy Rollins	The Brotherhood
3.	Carlos Zambrano	BlueFalcon
4.	Hanley Ramírez	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Derrek Lee	Cuban Elite
6.	Travis Hafner	Feedom Fighters
7.	Derek Jeter	KasTraTors
8.	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Dodgers of t...
9.	Mark Teixeira	Amazins
10.	Chris Carpenter	Cubkillers

Round 4
1.	Joe Mauer	Cubkillers
2.	Roy Oswalt	Amazins
3.	Jake Peavy	Dodgers of t...
4.	Roy Halladay	KasTraTors
5.	Brandon Webb	Feedom Fighters
6.	Aramis Ramírez	Cuban Elite
7.	Ben Sheets	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Francisco Rodríguez	BlueFalcon
9.	Jermaine Dye	The Brotherhood
10.	John Lackey	Dream Team

Round 5
1.	Ryan Zimmerman	Dream Team
2.	Garrett Atkins	The Brotherhood
3.	Miguel Tejada	BlueFalcon
4.	Andruw Jones	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Víctor Martínez	Cuban Elite
6.	Bobby Abreu	Feedom Fighters
7.	Scott Rolen	KasTraTors
8.	Tadahito Iguchi	Dodgers of t...
9.	Vernon Wells	Amazins
10.	Michael Young	Cubkillers

Round 6
1.	Brian Roberts	Cubkillers
2.	Rafael Furcal	Amazins
3.	Mariano Rivera	Dodgers of t...
4.	Félix Hernández	KasTraTors
5.	Robinson Canó	Feedom Fighters
6.	Joe Nathan	Cuban Elite
7.	Johnny Damon	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Rich Harden	BlueFalcon
9.	Hideki Matsui	The Brotherhood
10.	Paul Konerko	Dream Team

Round 7
1.	Matt Cain	Dream Team
2.	John Smoltz	The Brotherhood
3.	Jeremy Bonderman	BlueFalcon
4.	Brett Myers	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	C.C. Sabathia	Cuban Elite
6.	Bill Hall	Feedom Fighters
7.	Juan Pierre	KasTraTors
8.	Chone Figgins	Dodgers of t...
9.	Brian McCann	Amazins
10.	Troy Glaus	Cubkillers

Round 8
1.	Rocco Baldelli	Cubkillers
2.	B.J. Ryan	Amazins
3.	Torii Hunter	Dodgers of t...
4.	Carlos Delgado	KasTraTors
5.	Jered Weaver	Feedom Fighters
6.	Justin Verlander	Cuban Elite
7.	Billy Wagner	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Eric Chávez	BlueFalcon
9.	Rickie Weeks	The Brotherhood
10.	Jim Thome	Dream Team

Round 9
1.	Chris Young	Dream Team
2.	Corey Patterson	The Brotherhood
3.	Huston Street	BlueFalcon
4.	Jonathan Papelbon	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Bobby Jenks	Cuban Elite
6.	Trevor Hoffman	Feedom Fighters
7.	Delmon Young	KasTraTors
8.	Jason Schmidt	Dodgers of t...
9.	Scott Kazmir	Amazins
10.	Tom Gordon	Cubkillers

Round 10
1.	Magglio Ordóñez	Cubkillers
2.	Rich Hill	Amazins
3.	Jason Giambi	Dodgers of t...
4.	Curt Schilling	KasTraTors
5.	Gary Sheffield	Feedom Fighters
6.	Josh Beckett	Cuban Elite
7.	Álex Ríos	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Adam LaRoche	BlueFalcon
9.	Kenji Johjima	The Brotherhood
10.	Erik Bedard	Dream Team

Round 11
1.	Cole Hamels	Dream Team
2.	J.J. Putz	The Brotherhood
3.	Ryan Freel	BlueFalcon
4.	Brad Lidge	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Scott Podsednik	Cuban Elite
6.	Dan Haren	Feedom Fighters
7.	Mike Mussina	KasTraTors
8.	Javier Vázquez	Dodgers of t...
9.	Dontrelle Willis	Amazins
10.	Bronson Arroyo	Cubkillers

Round 12
1.	Barry Zito	Cubkillers
2.	Chad Cordero	Amazins
3.	Jason Isringhausen	Dodgers of t...
4.	Chris Ray	KasTraTors
5.	Francisco Cordero	Feedom Fighters
6.	Jon Garland	Cuban Elite
7.	Dave Bush	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Joe Borowski	BlueFalcon
9.	Prince Fielder	The Brotherhood
10.	Brian Fuentes	Dream Team

Round 13
1.	Takashi Saito	Dream Team
2.	Chien-Ming Wang	The Brotherhood
3.	A.J. Burnett	BlueFalcon
4.	Scott Olsen	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	José Contreras	Cuban Elite
6.	Kelvim Escobar	Feedom Fighters
7.	Aaron Harang	KasTraTors
8.	A.J. Pierzynski	Dodgers of t...
9.	Adam Dunn	Amazins
10.	Freddy García	Cubkillers

Round 14
1.	Bob Wickman	Cubkillers
2.	Willy Taveras	Amazins
3.	Julio Lugo	Dodgers of t...
4.	Jeff Kent	KasTraTors
5.	Randy Johnson	Feedom Fighters
6.	Dan Uggla	Cuban Elite
7.	Marcus Giles	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Ervin Santana	BlueFalcon
9.	Carlos Guillén	The Brotherhood
10.	John Patterson	Dream Team

Round 15
1.	Chris Capuano	Dream Team
2.	Pedro Martínez	The Brotherhood
3.	Howie Kendrick	BlueFalcon
4.	Andy Pettitte	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Mark Prior	Cuban Elite
6.	Russell Martin	Feedom Fighters
7.	Kevin Millwood	KasTraTors
8.	Jorge Posada	Dodgers of t...
9.	Raúl Ibañez	Amazins
10.	Nick Swisher	Cubkillers

Round 16
1.	Tim Hudson	Cubkillers
2.	Chuck James	Amazins
3.	Derek Lowe	Dodgers of t...
4.	Bartolo Colón	KasTraTors
5.	Anibal Sánchez	Feedom Fighters
6.	Josh Johnson	Cuban Elite
7.	Kenny Rogers	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Joel Zumaya	BlueFalcon
9.	Chipper Jones	The Brotherhood
10.	Ian Snell	Dream Team

Round 17
1.	Michael Cuddyer	Dream Team
2.	Eric Gagne	The Brotherhood
3.	Michael Barrett	BlueFalcon
4.	Mark Buehrle	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Frank Thomas	Cuban Elite
6.	Felipe López	Feedom Fighters
7.	Ted Lilly	KasTraTors
8.	Josh Willingham	Dodgers of t...
9.	Tom Glavine	Amazins
10.	J.D. Drew	Cubkillers

Round 18
1.	Brad Penny	Cubkillers
2.	Mike González	Amazins
3.	Mark Mulder	Dodgers of t...
4.	Roger Clemens	KasTraTors
5.	Scot Shields	Feedom Fighters
6.	Ryan Dempster	Cuban Elite
7.	Matt Garza	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Hank Blalock	BlueFalcon
9.	Greg Maddux	The Brotherhood
10.	José Valverde	Dream Team

Round 19
1.	Clay Hensley	Dream Team
2.	Adrián Béltre	The Brotherhood
3.	Akinori Otsuka	BlueFalcon
4.	Ramón Hernández	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Kerry Wood	Cuban Elite
6.	Todd Jones	Feedom Fighters
7.	Armando Benítez	KasTraTors
8.	Nick Markakis	Dodgers of t...
9.	Todd Helton	Amazins
10.	Octavio Dotel	Cubkillers

Round 20
1.	Carl Pavano	Cubkillers
2.	Dan Wheeler	Amazins
3.	Kei Igawa	Dodgers of t...
4.	Cliff Lee	KasTraTors
5.	Jeremy Sowers	Feedom Fighters
6.	Juan Uribe	Cuban Elite
7.	Scott Linebrink	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Barry Bonds	BlueFalcon
9.	Alex Gordon	The Brotherhood
10.	Adam Wainwright	Dream Team

Round 21
1.	Mike Piazza	Dream Team
2.	Bob Howry	The Brotherhood
3.	Nate Robertson	BlueFalcon
4.	Richie Sexson	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Joe Crede	Cuban Elite
6.	Boof Bonser	Feedom Fighters
7.	Jake Westbrook	KasTraTors
8.	Vicente Padilla	Dodgers of t...
9.	Jonathan Broxton	Amazins
10.	Cla Meredith	Cubkillers

Round 22
1.	Rafael Soriano	Cubkillers
2.	Jorge Julio	Amazins
3.	Freddy Sánchez	Dodgers of t...
4.	Francisco Liriano	KasTraTors
5.	Tom Gorzelanny	Feedom Fighters
6.	Mike MacDougal	Cuban Elite
7.	Aaron Heilman	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Jason Marquis	BlueFalcon
9.	Félix Pié	The Brotherhood
10.	Salomón Torres	Dream Team

Round 23
1.	Kyle Farnsworth	Dream Team
2.	Matt Murton	The Brotherhood
3.	Juan Rincón	BlueFalcon
4.	Noah Lowry	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Justin Duchscherer	Cuban Elite
6.	Akinori Iwamura	Feedom Fighters
7.	Jason Jennings	KasTraTors
8.	Orlando Cabrera	Dodgers of t...
9.	Ken Griffey Jr.	Amazins
10.	Jeff Suppan	Cubkillers

Round 24
1.	Chris Duncan	Cubkillers
2.	Stephen Drew	Amazins
3.	Josh Barfield	Dodgers of t...
4.	Scott Proctor	KasTraTors
5.	Justin Speier	Feedom Fighters
6.	Daniel Cabrera	Cuban Elite
7.	Doug Davis	ChiSoX SluGGa's
8.	Liván Hernández	BlueFalcon
9.	Aubrey Huff	The Brotherhood
10.	Ian Kinsler	Dream Team

Round 25
1.	Brad Hawpe	Dream Team
2.	Wade Miller	The Brotherhood
3.	Iván Rodríguez	BlueFalcon
4.	Jeff Francis	ChiSoX SluGGa's
5.	Gustavo Chacín	Cuban Elite
6.	Jeff Francoeur	Feedom Fighters
7.	Jason Varitek	KasTraTors
8.	Nomar Garciaparra	Dodgers of t...
9.	John Maine	Amazins
10.	Orlando Hernández	Cubkillers

Sleeper of the Week

2007-04-09T13:01:00.000-07:00

Coined by Baseball Forecaster creator Ron Shandler, LIMA stands for Low Investment Mound Aces, a strategy used to get high-quality pitchers later in a draft or for cheap dollar values. The theory behind the strategy is to look for pitchers with high K/BB and K/9, and low HR/9 ratios; these stats more accurately predict the next season’s ERA than looking at the previous season’s ERA. However, I will take into account a few more bits of information then the three aforementioned stats when dealing with these pitchers throughout the off-season. My nominee for the LIMA of 2007 is Dave Bush, America’s third favorite Bush.

The shrubbery from Milwaukee had a mediocre 4.41 ERA last year (which in itself will likely drop him on a lot of people’s draft lists) and added a good-but-not-inspiring 166 Ks. But Bush’s Earned Runs Created, a sort of reverse RC/27, was 3.47 – a much more accurate indicator of his success. Not to mention his WHIP was 1.15, up with the elite of the NL. Furthermore, Bush is 27, one of the “magical ages” used to help predict breakout seasons.

Bush tied for first in the NL with a 4.31 K/BB ratio. The other names in the top ten in the NL? Oswalt. Carpenter. Smoltz. Webb. Peavy. Capuano. Harang. Maddux. He’s in pretty good company. High K/BB ratio? Check.

Bush also was third in the NL last year for percent of pitches in the strike zone – his control is definitely there - and he again places third in the NL with an average of 3.49 pitches per batter, highlighting his ability to get hitters out without straining himself. But when you realize his K/9 is 7.11, he is hardly just a Maddux-esque control pitcher. High K/9? Check.

He allowed 26 HRs in 32 games last year – not spectacular, but enough to see he isn’t offering them up on a silver platter.

He suffered at times from poor run support and poor defense behind him, but with emerging (and healthy) stars Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, and JJ Hardy, his run support should increase. Bringing in starter Jeff Suppan and coupling him with a hopefully healthy Ben Sheets (it’s a stretch, I know) should result in more rest for one of MLB’s worst bullpens. A full season of Francisco Cordero – who had a 1.89 ERA with the Brewers last year – and a decent bounce back from Derrick Turnbow should give the Brew Crew a pretty good eighth and ninth inning punch, holding onto a few more wins for Bush.

Fearless prediction: 3.65 ERA, 175 Ks, 1.15 WHIP, 14 Wins. Plus, you’ll get him cheap!